Forecasting the Course of Disease: Lung Cancer Prognosis
Overall, fewer than 10% of people with primary lung cancer are alive 5 years after diagnosis. But 5-year survival rates may be as high as 35–40% among patients who undergo surgical resection for cancer that has not spread beyond the lung. General estimates of stage-specific median survival times—the point at which 50% of patients are still living—are as follows:
| Stage 1a | —more than 60 months (> 5 years) | Stage 1b | —about 36 months (3 years) |
| Stage 2a | —about 24 months (2 years) |
| Stage 2b | —about 20 months (< 2 years) |
| Stage 3a | —about 15 months (< 1.5 years) |
| Stage 3b | —about 12 months (1 year) |
| Stage 4 | —about 8 months (< 1 year) |
Recent findings indicate that 5-year survival rates approach 85% among patients who are younger than 30 years of age and have surgically removable lung cancers (Mizushima et al., Cancer 85:1730-33, April 1999). Researchers believe that genetic mutations may be responsible for differences in survival rates between older and younger people with lung cancer.
Nearly half of limited-stage SCLC patients who have been treated aggressively are alive after 2 to 3 years. By contrast, untreated patients with localized disease show median survivals of approximately 3 to 4 months. Extensive-stage SCLC patients who undergo comfort care have expected median survivals of 4 to 6 weeks. (Note: these findings are based on a group of patients and may not be true for any one patient).
Physician-developed and -monitored.
Original Date of Publication: 15 Aug 1999
Reviewed by: Stanley J. Swierzewski, III, M.D.
Last Reviewed: 04 Dec 2007
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